EXCLUSIVE: BioWare's "Dragon Age: The Veilguard" Began as Co-Op Game, Sold LESS Than 1.5m...

In my previous coverage, we talked about the 'grim' state of BioWare and its latest release, Dragon Age: The Veilguard. Since that published, I've been contacted by another source from within BioWare.

Almost everything I covered in that article/video has now been confirmed by another BioWare employee through an anonymous email. This source here is someone I’ve been in contact with multiple times before—an individual whose prior insights have been extremely accurate. In addition to providing me even more info, they let me know that a correction needs to be made regarding the sales figures that I discussed previously... In a VERY BAD direction for BioWare.

Initially, I reported that I was informed that Dragon Age: The Veilguard sold over 3 million copies. That figure, clarified by this other source, is not the actual sales data, but instead - an internal projection of lifetime sales with a tail. The real number of copies sold to consumers? Under 1.5 million.

Yes, you read that correctly. LESS than 1.5 million copies have been sold to date, and this info falls comes directly from BioWare’s internal info - for anonymity purposes, I will not be divulging the specific area, but trust me when I say, this source is someone I am very confident is being extremely accurate with the intel given to me here. It all underscores just how catastrophic failure of the game—especially when compared to its projected sales of 10 million.

For those NOT in the know, "Lifetime sales with a tail" refers to the total expected sales of a product over its entire lifecycle, including both initial release AND gradual sales over time, with that often by insiders in the know being referred to as the "tail."

Here's a breakdown of what "Lifetime sales with a tail" means in the 'business' sense:

Initial Sales: The bulk of a game's sales typically occur within the first few weeks or months after release, driven by marketing, pre-orders, and launch hype... Again... Typically.

Sales Tail: After the initial surge, sales often decline, but continue at a slower pace over time. This "tail" can be extended through factors like discounts, sales events, re-releases, expansions, or digital bundles... or even random bumps from Youtuber/news coverage

When a company estimates "lifetime sales with a tail," they're predicting the total number of copies sold, including both the launch window and these slower, long-term sales over the years. That's why it’s considered a projection and not an accurate measure of any kind of immediate success.

For Dragon Age: The Veilguard, the initial LESS THAN 1.5 million sold is a TERRIBLE underperformance compared to their projection of 3 million+ lifetime sales with a tail. It means EA and BioWare expected the game to eventually sell additional copies over time... but are already waaay below on those goals in the current critical launch period. The game is just over a month old as of this writing... and those sales numbers being confirmed at LES than 1.5 million total is embarrassingly low for a massive AAA title in development for nearly a decade.

Here’s an excerpt from the email that details this stark reality:

“Your number of copies sold is wrong. The number the whistleblower gives you is a projection with the tail (basically over the lifetime of the game with sales). It currently has less than 1.5m sold. Sold to consumers. Not retail. So that is a MAJOR disaster for us at BioWare.”

The email further elaborates on the dire state of affairs at the studio:

“A lot of the info you mentioned seems correct to me, there is indeed a lot of talk of layoffs. However, you can confirm with your sources, but most of the staff was reassigned to other projects within EA for the time being. I myself have also been asked to help another project, but not at BioWare. Most people are not on Bowie at the moment; if your source says otherwise, then they are not telling you the truth.”

I presume "Bowie" was a typo for "BioWare", and if so, these messages paint an even bleaker picture of BioWare’s future than I first thought... and certainly explains the impending doom of layoffs incoming. EA’s expectations for The Veilguard were astronomically high, especially given the game’s prolonged development cycle and ballooning budget.

According to various estimates I've seen floating around, the production costs could have soared to upwards of $250 million or more, making the dismal sales figures even more devastating. On top of this, EA and BioWare, as I reported previously, were somehow expecting the sales goal of this game to reach 10 Million copies sold - A ridiculous number to say the least, when we consider the game itself is available on EA Play streaming service, ad was given away to new buyers of Nvidia graphics cards. To recoup this kind of investment, the game needed to be a blockbuster. Instead... it’s shaping up to be one of the biggest flops in BioWare’s history.

This source confirmed the troubled development history of The Veilguard. The game apparently originally started as a co-op project called “Joplin” but it was rebooted after the failure of Anthem.

"Veilguard has been in development for a long time, and a previous iteration (before a full reboot) was called Joplin, a co-op version of, but was canned after Anthem failures."

The internal chaos further strained resources and contributed to the bloated development costs.

The email also hints at imminent layoffs:

“The projections of copies sold are correct, they were expecting around 10 million. EA is allergic to risks nowadays and wants big blockbusters.”

The lack of risk moving forward, coupled with the colossal failure of The Veilguard, leaves little doubt to me (or really anyone looking at this situation objectively, really) that layoffs are coming... and coming SOON. Most of the team has already been reassigned to other EA projects, but as BioWare’s future dims, it’s likely only a matter of time before further cutbacks occur.

This situation reconfirms those broader questions about the state of BioWare and its place within EA’s portfolio that we talked about previously. Once a titan of storytelling in gaming, BioWare now finds itself teetering on the edge of irrelevance. The failure of Dragon Age: The Veilguard isn't just a financial blow... but also, a stark warning for the studio’s chance of survival.

~Smash